Diaspora's role in the AHEAD project

The role of diaspora in anticipatory action

Diaspora, though often outside formal aid structures, play an essential role in supporting conflict-prone contexts. In emergencies, they act as first responders, mobilizing resources quickly, flexibly, and at scale. Diaspora contributions to fragile states often outpace traditional aid flows, in some cases amounting to six times more than external assistance. Beyond immediate relief, diaspora engage across different stages of crises and sectors - from health and education to protection, livelihoods, and peacebuilding. Their ability to bridge acute needs with long-term recovery makes them prime agents of nexus solutions and a strong foundation for enhancing their role in AA.

Despite the diversity of their activities, the organizations face structural barriers that limit their access to AA frameworks, forecasting tools and flexible funding, leaving diaspora humanitarianism overly reactive rather than proactive. With stronger knowledge of AA, better links to AA response plans, and improved capacity to secure financial resources, diaspora organizations and their local partners can better use their joint abilities to mobilize quickly, advocate internationally, and support communities in ways that directly strengthen anticipatory action and overall humanitarian response.

How we work with diaspora partners

• The AHEAD Forecasting Model uses machine learning to forecast displacement in sub-districts in Liptako-Gourma region in Sahel, covering Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, as well as in South Sudan and Somalia. The forecasts enables humanitarian actors to get ahead of displacement crises. We are currently developing a shared reporting system that synthesizes local and diaspora organizations' context monitoring with the AHEAD Model.
• The AHEAD Learning Series brings together diaspora organizations and local partners operating in hard-to-reach areas to translate AA concepts into practical applications and concrete outputs. This program is designed to address the gap between diaspora response and institutional humanitarianism by building diaspora capacity, improving access to forecasting tools, and generating practical insights on their role in AA.