Global displacement crisis set to surge by 6.7 million people due to ongoing conflicts and civilian attacks: New DRC forecast
Sudan, the world’s most urgent humanitarian crisis, will account for nearly a third of new displacements. Other hotspots: Afghanistan, Myanmar, DR Congo. Record displacement, skyrocketing needs, and drastic funding cuts are leading to a once-in-a-generation crisis as wealthy nations cut aid, leaving millions to suffer.
Posted on 14 Mar 2025
The world faces an unprecedented humanitarian crisis as wars and attacks on civilians are expected to drive 6.7 million people from their homes over the next two years, according to a new forecast by the Danish Refugee Council.
The Global Displacement Forecast Report 2025 published today reveals a staggering spike in forced displacements in 2025 alone – 4.2 million people – the highest forecasted by DRC since 2021. Another 2.5 million people are expected to flee their communities in search of safety and protection in 2026.
The dramatic rise in displacements will occur against the backdrop of a devastating withdrawal of international aid by the U.S., the UK, and Germany, leaving millions of vulnerable people without essential support.
We live in an age of war and impunity, and civilians are paying the heaviest price.
/ Charlotte Slente, Secretary General of the Danish Refugee Council
"We live in an age of war and impunity, and civilians are paying the heaviest price," said Danish Refugee Council Secretary General Charlotte Slente.
"Our AI-driven modeling paints a tragic picture: 6.7 million people displaced over the next two years. These are not cold statistics. These are families forced to flee their homes, carrying next to nothing, and searching for water, food, and shelter."
DRC’s Foresight model, developed in partnership with IBM with Danish government funding, accurately predicts displacement trends by analyzing 148 indicators, based on economic, security, political, environmental, and societal factors, across 27 countries that represent 93% of all global displacement.
The number of countries with projected increases of more than 250,000 displaced people over the next two years has more than doubled since last year's forecast. The civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar will account for nearly half of all projected displacements.
Other countries that will see a surge in displacements due to armed conflict, climate change, the legacy of war and socio-economic instability, include Afghanistan, DR Congo, Syria, Yemen and Venezuela.
Globally, Sudan is the world’s biggest displacement and hunger crisis. DRC projections show that it will continue to be the most urgent humanitarian crisis: By the end of 2026, another 2.1 million people will be displaced, adding to the 12.6 million people already displaced inside Sudan and to neighboring countries.
Meanwhile, in Myanmar, an intense multi-front civil war has intensified and resulted in 3.5 million people displaced and nearly 20 million people, or a third of the population, needs humanitarian assistance. DRC is forecasting 1.4 million new forced displacements by the end of 2026.
The United States, formerly the world’s largest global donor, has terminated 83% of USAID contracts, and other major donors are also cutting aid. This withdrawal comes at a time when humanitarian needs are at an all-time high.
According to DRC analysis included in this year’s report, the cancellation of all U.S. aid funding could result in 57 million fewer people being reached with critical humanitarian aid.
Millions are facing starvation and displacement, and just as they need us most, wealthy nations are slashing aid. It's a betrayal of the most vulnerable.
/ Charlotte Slente, Secretary General of the Danish Refugee Council
"Millions are facing starvation and displacement, and just as they need us most, wealthy nations are slashing aid. It's a betrayal of the most vulnerable," said Secretary General Slente.
"We’re in the middle of a global ‘perfect storm’: Record displacement, surging needs, and devastating funding cuts. Major donors are abandoning their duty, leaving millions to suffer. This is more than a crisis. It is a moral failure."
DRC calls on the international community to urgently address this global crisis, act on its projections, and fund lifesaving aid before these crises spiral further out of control. DRC also calls on conflicting parties to protect civilians, and the end of impunity for those breaking International Humanitarian Law.
As the report points out, the targeting of civilians, healthcare and health workers increased by 8% in 2024; and 16 of 27 countries in our forecast had very high or extreme humanitarian access constraints.
