page
Documents
Global Displacement Forecast
These reports present a forecast of forced displacement developed on the basis of the Foresight model – a machine learning model initially developed in cooperation with IBM and with funding from the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Funding is currently provided by Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, SIDA and ECHO
Executive summary
Welcome to the Global Displacement Forecast Collection
Explore our comprehensive archive of the Danish Refugee Council’s (DRC) Global Displacement Forecast reports. Powered by the innovative, AI-driven Foresight model—which uses over 120 indicators related to conflict, governance, economy, and the environment—these reports provide highly accurate predictions of forced displacement one to three years into the future for countries that account for over 90% of global displacement.
Main Conclusions Across the Reports:
- An Escalating Global Crisis: Displacement numbers are consistently breaking historical records, driven by a complex and worsening web of armed conflict, climate change, economic decline, and a growing disregard for International Humanitarian Law (IHL).
- The Impact on Fragile Nations: The vast majority of displaced people—often between 70% and 80%—remain within their own borders as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). Furthermore, the responsibility of hosting those who do cross borders falls disproportionately on low-income, climate-vulnerable countries that have the fewest resources, rather than wealthy nations.
- A Widening Funding Gap: As displacement surges, the gap between humanitarian needs and available funding continues to grow to all-time highs. The reports highlight how critical cuts to Official Development Assistance (ODA) and peacebuilding severely hamper relief efforts and exacerbate crises.
- The Urgent Need for Durable Solutions: The reports consistently advocate for a paradigm shift from reactive emergency aid toward sustainable, durable solutions. This includes prioritizing local integration, safe and voluntary return and reintegration, climate adaptation, and addressing the root causes of conflict through robust diplomatic and peacebuilding efforts.
Who Should Read These Reports?
These reports are essential reading for policymakers, international donors, humanitarian actors, researchers, and NGO strategists.
If you are involved in allocating development funding, designing anticipatory action strategies, formulating asylum policies, or advocating for the protection of vulnerable populations, the predictive data and deep-dive country analyses provided here will equip you with the foresight needed to make informed, proactive decisions.
Download the reports today to explore the data, understand the underlying drivers of forced migration, and discover actionable recommendations to help the international community prepare for and mitigate the world's most pressing humanitarian emergencies.
More content like this
page
Seeing the future? The mixed migration foresight project
page
The Refugee Investment Facility
page
Innovative Financing for Climate Resilience in Displacement
page
Strengthening the financial resilience of refugees
page
Social Impact Bonds for Labour Market Inclusion
page
Microinsurance initiative for informal workers in the middle east
page