Executive summary
The strong forecasted El Niño event in 2026 and 2027 are likely to have a significant effect on displaced people and may drive further displacement. The relationship between climate and displacement is complex. Climate-induced natural hazards displace an average of 22 million people every year, many of whom remain in protracted displacement. Needs assessment data from DRC operations in multiple countries further shows that displaced people frequently live in shelters that offer limited protection against extreme weather events. Climate shocks drive displacement by eroding livelihoods and food security, but they can also create "trapped populations," whose depleted resources leave them unable to flee worsening conditions. Against this backdrop, DRC’s analysis finds a relationship between annual changes in displacement and the phase of the El Niño; however additional data is needed to validate this hypothesis.
To better understand where displaced and vulnerable populations may be most exposed to the anticipated effects of El Niño, DRC analysed available weather forecasting, exposure and population mobility data across a sample of contexts where it operates, including Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Colombia, Venezuela, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and Syria. The analysis aims to identify areas that may merit closer monitoring; it does not predict specific impacts.
In Somalia, where the impact of El Nino is likely to be high, this analysis identifies that around 2.3 million as being most exposed to flooding in the Juba and Shabelle riverine corridors, and in urban and peri-urban areas around Mogadishu, with IDPs in fragile shelters particularly at risk. Ethiopia is forecast to see both elevated dryness in northeast, and wetness in the south, with exposed populations identified both in the southeast and parts of Ethiopia’s densely populated highland corridor. Some of the highest potential exposure appears to be in the Somali Region, where approximately 320,000 people may be highly exposed to flooding. In Kenya, between over 500,000 people are identified in areas exposed to frequent river flooding, with coastal areas, as well as Tana, Garissa, Dadaab, Mandera and Wajir identified as potential impact hotspots. In Venezuela, DRC’s analysis suggests that a drier-than-normal season could worsen conditions in Maracaibo, Caracas, and the central-north urban belt, for people already affected by the country’s displacement and migration crisis. In Colombia, which hosts 7.2 million internally displaced people, El Niño-related dryness could worsen existing pressure on water access, food security, agriculture, livestock, hydropower and public health, including in La Guajira and the Caribbean urban corridor. Forecasts for the Sahel are more mixed, with a potential both for continued drought/agropastoral stress and localized flood risk, with potential impact hotspots in Boucle du Mouhoun (Burkina Faso), Ségou, Mopti and the Inner Niger Delta / Niger River corridor (Mali) and Yobe River basin (Niger). Finally, in Syria, a wetter-than-normal late-2026 rainy-season period may have large humanitarian impacts in Al-Hasakeh, where recent displacement and service disruption have already increased vulnerability, and northwest Syria, where camp and shelter conditions make even localized heavy rainfall potentially severe.
The contexts where DRC operates have very different exposure to El Niño risks, systems and resources, and DRC is applying a flexible approach to strengthening preparedness according to forecast confidence, existing programming and national capacities. DRC teams on the ground are in the process of adapting existing programmes to anticipated El Niño impacts; strengthening existing preparedness and anticipatory action systems and making rapid investment in emergency preparedness plans and simplified anticipatory action plans. Further information on DRC’s El Niño response will be available in a forthcoming Global El Niño Response Plan.