New reports on anticipatory action pilots

As global displacement continues to rise, there is a pressing need to effectively anticipate it in order to minimise its occurrence and impacts and support the areas receiving displaced people. The Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is one of the few agencies and organisations that has implemented programming to test the relevance and accuracy of anticipatory approaches to prevent or reduce the impacts of displacement.

With funding from ECHO, DRC has set-up anticipatory action mechanisms to get ahead of conflict-induced displacement in Burkina Faso and South Sudan. An assessment just published on the first activation of the mechanism in Akobo, South Sudan found that the inter-community dialogue efforts initiated by DRC as part of the anticipatory action system contributed to decrease in violence and conflict. The de-escalation also had a number of positive spill-over effects including faster returns of the displaced to their homes and access to hunting and fishing grounds, which have helped to reduce humanitarian needs and dependency, particularly related to food security. The assessment further found that, from a value-for-money perspective, the anticipatory action mechanism is estimated to have made a significant return on investment. For every euro spent during the activation, €6.6 were saved by the absence of having to respond to displacement. When taking into account savings resulting from more timely returns, the return on investment is even higher - 1:23 (i.e. for every euro spent during the activation, €23 were saved). 

In a broader lessons learned study taking into account also the findings from Burkina Faso, a number of recommendations have been developed for taking this work forward. These include

1. Consider scaling based on conflict breadth rather than physical geography
2. Develop multi-hazard triggers for AA for displacement
3. Conduct communication and advocacy efforts to address both the complexity of AA and the associated risks
4. Enhance coordination between AA and different actors
5. Utilise community perceptions and community-led work throughout the AA process
6. Explore alternative finance to support programming and research on anticipating displacement