Launch of the Global Displacement Forecast Report 2025

According to the model, the total number of people displaced globally is forecasted to increase by 4.2 million in 2025 and an additional 2.5 million by the end of 2026 entailing a total increase of 6.7 million. This would bring the total number of displaced people worldwide to more than 130 million and if trend continues would reach more than 140 million by 2030. The report puts specific focus on displacement hotspots: Myanmar, Sudan and Yemen, as well as a special feature on the displacement in Gaza.

The report explores current trends related to the deterioration in the conditions driving displacement including a spike in violence against civilians. 2024 saw a significant increase in the number of incidents of violence against civilians. Funding levels to solve crises and its impacts have slumped - beyond Ukraine, crisis-affected countries have seen severe cuts in ODA, peacebuilding and humanitarian funding.

The report further shows how returns are impacted by various factors in both host country and country of asylum. It shows that many displaced people return to insecure and climate vulnerable countries. It further shows that liberal policies that allow refugees to participate in society and obtain livelihoods, increases the likelihood of return. It further underscores the importance of peacebuilding efforts, such as Intra- and Inter-community dialogues, security system management and reform, reintegration of individuals involved in armed violence, removal of land mines and explosive remnants of war, to enable safe and durable returns.