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AHEAD Model background info, forecast reports, etc.
Executive summary
Document purpose: The AHEAD Global Snapshot #11 provides displacement forecasts for March to May 2026, covering ten countries and analyzing cross-border displacement from Sudan.
Key findings:
- Somalia: Displacement expected to rise by over 200,000, driven by drought and conflict.
- Sudan: Total IDPs projected to decrease by over 35,000, with cross-border flows increasing by over 150,000.
- South Sudan: Internal displacement anticipated to climb by roughly 83,000 due to escalating violence.
- Uganda: Increase of more than 5,000 refugees and asylum seekers from South Sudan projected.
- Eastern DR Congo: IDPs expected to increase by roughly 35,000.
- Mali: IDPs projected to increase by 4,000.
- Yemen: New displacements expected to exceed 3,000.
Main conclusions:
- Displacement trends are driven by conflict dynamics, food insecurity, and seasonal factors.
- The AHEAD model imputes missing data and projects displacement three months ahead.
- Cross-border displacement from Sudan is a significant concern, with increases projected in Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, and Libya.
Target audience:
The report is intended for humanitarian organizations, policymakers, and stakeholders involved in displacement response and planning, particularly those working in the countries covered by the snapshot.
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