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Global Displacement Forecast
These reports present a forecast of forced displacement developed on the basis of the Foresight model – a machine learning model initially developed in cooperation with IBM and with funding from the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Funding is currently provided by Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, SIDA and ECHO
Cyan Haribhai
Executive summary
Welcome to the Global Displacement Forecast Collection
Explore our comprehensive archive of the Danish Refugee Council’s (DRC) Global Displacement Forecast reports. Powered by the innovative, AI-driven Foresight model—which uses over 120 indicators related to conflict, governance, economy, and the environment—these reports provide highly accurate predictions of forced displacement one to three years into the future for countries that account for over 90% of global displacement.
What the 2026–2027 outlook signals
The current global asylum and refugee hosting architecture rests on an increasingly fragile assumption: that neighbouring low and lower-middle-income countries will continue to absorb the majority of large-scale displacement, despite persistent conflict, intensifying climate stress and contracting external financing. Many of these states are themselves classified as fragile or conflict-affected, and sustained hosting without commensurate support from the international community, risks reinforcing cycles of fragility and cross-border instability.
Recent trends in 2025 illustrate that large-scale returns can reduce aggregate displacement figures without addressing the structural drivers of displacement or restoring conditions necessary for sustainable reintegration. In environments characterised by continued violence, access limitations and weak institutional capacity, such returns are unlikely to meet the criteria for durable solutions and may contribute to renewed displacement risk.
The DRC forecasts presented in this report point to continued growth in displacement, concentrated in fragile and climate-exposed contexts with three structural drivers converging:
1. Ongoing conflict and institutional fragility remain the primary drivers of large-scale displacement. Elevated levels of violence against civilians, limited capacity and political space to resolve disputes through negotiated and non-violent means, limited state capacity to deliver security and basic services continue to generate movement within and across borders.
2. Climate stress and natural resource pressure are increasingly interacting with existing fragility, compounding displacement risk in already vulnerable contexts.
3. Constrained financing environments are weakening both prevention and response systems. Reductions in official development assistance, including peacebuilding and resilience financing, alongside underfunded humanitarian response plans, are associated with higher subsequent displacement pressures in fragile settings.
These dynamics carry direct implications: Humanitarian access will remain constrained in many high-risk contexts, limiting protection monitoring and response capacity precisely where needs are rising. Returns will increase under pressure, particularly from saturated host countries, but many will occur in environments characterised by continued insecurity. Protracted displacement will deepen, with more IDPs living outside formal settlements and relying on overstretched municipal systems.
Who should read these reports?
These reports are essential reading for policymakers, international donors, humanitarian actors, researchers, and NGO strategists.
If you are involved in allocating development funding, designing anticipatory action strategies, formulating asylum policies, or advocating for the protection of vulnerable populations, the predictive data and deep-dive country analyses provided here will equip you with the foresight needed to make informed, proactive decisions.
Download the reports today to explore the data, understand the underlying drivers of forced migration, and discover actionable recommendations to help the international community prepare for and mitigate the world's most pressing humanitarian emergencies.
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