PRESS RELEASE: Wars targeting civilians and rising insecurity to force 4.2 million to flee - new DRC Forecast
Projected rise in displacement through 2027 will test a fraying international safety net
Copenhagen, 16 April 2026 – Wars waged with no regard for civilian life and ongoing insecurity will drive 4.2 million people from their homes by the end of 2027, according to a new forecast by the Danish Refugee Council.
The increase comes on top of the estimated 117.3 million people currently forcibly displaced worldwide. The Global Displacement Forecast 2026, published today, reveals:
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Sudan – the world’s most significant displacement crisis – will see the largest jump, with an additional 350,000 displaced people in 2026 and 320,000 in 2027.
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Myanmar will see the second-highest increase: 315,000 in 2026 and a further 190,000 in 2027.
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Sub-Saharan Africa – specifically South Sudan, Chad and Ethiopia, and Sudan – will account for nearly half (1.9 million) of all newly displaced people by the end of 2027.
The international community is facing a catastrophic failure to protect the world’s most vulnerable. In 2025, there was a 14 per cent surge in violence against civilians. From Sudan to Myanmar, warring parties routinely kill and injure civilians. Bombs are dropped on hospitals, schools and the markets that people depend on
Charlotte Slente, Secretary General of the DRC.
“In this bleak and twisted reality, civilians are the target. For families fleeing war with nothing but the clothes on their backs, there is little hope: The international safety net that once existed has gaping holes as humanitarian assistance shrinks. The international community and warring parties must step up diplomacy and peacebuilding efforts to end conflicts and reduce widespread suffering,” she added.
The DRC’s Foresight model – developed in partnership with IBM with Danish government funding – predicts displacement trends by analyzing 148 economic, security, political, environmental, and societal indicators across 27 countries. These countries represent 93% of all global displacement.
Crucially, these projections are based on data available at the end of 2025 and pre-date the escalation of conflict in the Middle East in February 2026. The global displacement crisis is already stretching the humanitarian system to a breaking point; the Middle East now desperately needs de-escalation and a lasting ceasefire.
“The conflict in the Middle East is driving new displacements and making the humanitarian situation worse. The situation remains very fluid and hard to predict. But there is a roadmap that can pull the region back from the brink: The current ceasefire must become permanent, and it must be extended to Lebanon where one in five people have been displaced by the conflict. Families in Lebanon and Iran must be allowed home to rebuild their lives in peace,” said Ms. Slente.
This year’s report highlights a shifting trend: new displacements are becoming increasingly distributed across more countries rather than a few major crises.
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Middle East: Increases are projected in occupied Palestinian territory, Syria, and Yemen.
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Asia: Afghanistan will see a rise in displacement.
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Latin America: Economic collapse in Venezuela has resulted in more than 7 million in need of humanitarian aid and will continue to drive new displacements.
“Predicting displacement is not a theoretical exercise. It must be a wake-up call and a prelude to action. By acting before the crisis spirals, we can preposition supplies, strengthen communities, and save lives and money on emergency costs,” said Ms. Slente.
“We have the technology to move from indifference to impact. What we need now is the political will to fund it. Wealthy nations must step up and empower the global humanitarian system with urgent funding so that families in shock can get the basics they need – shelter, food, water, and medical help – and get back on their feet. More than ever, we must be clear and hold warring parties to account: Civilians must never be a target.”
AVAILABLE FOR INTERVIEWS:
Charlotte Slente, Danish Refugee Council Secretary General
DRC MEDIA CONTACTS:
Danish media: [email protected]
EDITORS NOTE: In 2025, the difference between the forecasts and the estimated actual level of displacement was on average 8%. Based on all the 298 forecasts made so far, the difference (absolute margin of error) is 17%. Overall, more than half of DRC forecasts have an absolute margin of error below 10% and almost two-thirds of the forecasts are less than 15% off the actual displacement.