Documents

Anticipatory action research, learnings, evaluations and assessments

Explore the collection below to discover how data, foresight, and community leadership are joining forces to redefine the future of global humanitarian response.

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Anticipating the impacts of fragility, conflict and violence 18 May 2026 PDF 652 KB
DRC Integrated Context Analysis Global Overview 2025 08 Apr 2026 PDF 2.1 MB
AHEAD Diaspora workshop learning report (Short) 25 Mar 2026 PDF 533 KB
AHEAD Diaspora workshop learning report (Long) 25 Mar 2026 PDF 958.9 KB
Lessons Learned: Anticipating displacement in South Sudan and Burkina Faso 07 Mar 2025 PDF 1.2 MB
Assessment of AA for conflict-induced displacement in South Sudan 01 Dec 2024 PDF 1.6 MB
Pushing the boundaries of anticipatory action using machine learning 17 Jan 2025 PDF 905.6 KB
Lessons learned: Anticipatory action response for IDPs exposed to floods in Somalia 24 Dec 2024 PDF 893.4 KB
Lessons Learned from DRC Predictive Modelling 30 Jun 2024 PDF 459.9 KB

Executive summary

Document purpose

This report summarizes a Strategic Dialogue held in Nairobi on 8 May 2026, co-convened by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Danish Refugee Council. The event addressed the urgent need to develop anticipatory action systems capable of mitigating the impacts of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV), which are escalating amid record displacement and shrinking humanitarian financing. The dialogue explored how to transition anticipatory action from a theoretical concept to a practical systems-change lever, emphasizing the importance of early intervention to reduce costs and protect communities.

Target audience

The primary audience includes:

Senior humanitarian practitioners and policymakers
Donor agencies and development partners
Regional bodies such as IGAD and the EU
Community-level actors and local organizations
Academics and researchers focused on conflict and displacement

Key findings

The dialogue highlighted several critical insights:

Evidence supports early action: Investments in anticipatory action ahead of conflict escalation have demonstrated significant cost savings, such as USD 1 invested saving USD 6.6 in emergency response in South Sudan.
Community systems are underutilized: Local communities already anticipate displacement using informal early warning systems (e.g., livestock movement, market behavior), but these signals are not integrated into formal anticipatory frameworks.
Structural gaps persist: Despite advancements in forecasting, institutional barriers—such as rigid financing, fragmented mandates, and limited flexibility—hinder the translation of early warnings into action.
Diaspora networks are a missed opportunity: Diaspora groups play a crucial role in early warning and resilience but remain largely excluded from formal anticipatory systems.
Systemic change is needed: Anticipatory action must be embedded within existing peacebuilding, development, and humanitarian architectures to maximize impact and sustainability.

The report concludes that the humanitarian sector must move beyond pilot projects and adopt a unified, systems-level approach to anticipatory action in FCV contexts.