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Executive summary
Purpose
The AHEAD Global Snapshot #12 provides displacement forecasts for April to June 2026, covering ten countries and analyzing cross-border displacement from Sudan.
Key Findings
- Sudan: Total IDPs projected to decline by ~40,000, but cross-border flows into neighboring countries may rise by ~117,000.
- Somalia: Displacement to surge by ~304,362, with Banadir and Baidoa recording largest increases.
- South Sudan: Internal displacement to increase by ~90,000, primarily in Jonglei (e.g., Nyirol +11,000).
- Eastern DR Congo: IDPs projected to rise by ~27,000, with Fizi (+12,000) and Kalemie (+14,000) as hotspots.
- Mali: IDP figures to grow by ~8,200, concentrated in Menaka (+3,000) and Tombouctou (+2,500).
- Uganda: Refugees/asylum seekers from South Sudan to increase by ~7,400 across nine settlements.
- Yemen: New displacements to exceed ~2,300.
Main Conclusions
The forecast highlights persistent displacement crises in Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan, with conflict and climate as primary drivers. While Sudan’s IDP numbers may decline, cross-border movements and regional instability remain critical concerns.
Target Audience
The report is intended for humanitarian organizations, policymakers, and stakeholders involved in displacement response and planning, particularly those working in the countries covered by the snapshot.
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